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In today’s economy, understanding the latest numbers can give us valuable insights into where things are headed. Windermere’s Principal Economist, Jeff Tucker, keeps us updated on the local market with short, helpful videos.
Below is a breakdown of Jeff’s video transcript, or you can watch his latest 4-min video here.
After a blockbuster October report, this was another very strong month for the Washington housing market, particularly for single-family home sales. That’s the data I’ll be digging into today.
Here are the four key metrics I watch to track supply and demand in the market: closed and pending sales, which indicate demand, and new and active listings, which reflect supply.
Closed sales of single-family homes climbed 25% year-over-year, from about 3,800 to over 4,700. Pending sales, which will mostly close in December, climbed 18% year-over-year. Both of these are impressive gains and highlight significantly more housing market activity—especially on the buying side—this November compared to last year.
On the supply side, I think of listings as the reservoir of options for buyers to choose from. New listings, which represent the flow of new supply into that reservoir, were up only 2% in November, while overall inventory in the reservoir was 18% higher than a year ago. These are more modest increases than we saw in October, which is a reassuring sign that the market isn’t headed for a glut.
The final key metric is the median price of closed single-family home sales, which climbed 6% year-over-year, from $625,000 to $665,000 across the entire Northwest MLS. That’s a slightly lower median price than last month, which is normal for this time of year. The pace of price growth also slowed slightly, a positive sign that the market isn’t experiencing runaway price increases. This is critical because affordability remains a key concern for the sustainability of Washington’s housing market.
Putting it all together, the strength of closed sales, combined with sustained growth in pending sales, suggests that September and October weren’t just a flash in the pan due to the Fed’s interest rate cuts. Instead, I think we’re seeing home sales normalize after being extremely depressed for much of the past two years.
Now, let’s dig into the three counties that make up the Seattle Metropolitan Area, where similar trends emerged.
- In King County (including Seattle and Bellevue), residential closed sales jumped 27% year-over-year.
- In Pierce County (including Tacoma), sales surged a whopping 35%.
- In Snohomish County (including Everett), sales rose 30%.
Altogether, the three-county metro area saw a 30% gain in closed sales volume compared to the same month last year.
The median price of closed sales in these counties showed slower growth than last month’s 10% annual gain:
- King County: up 4% to $925,000
- Pierce County: up 5% to $565,000
- Snohomish County: up 8% to $785,000
Looking ahead, pending sales grew solidly but slightly slower than closed sales:
- King County: up 15%
- Pierce County: up 33%
- Snohomish County: up 16%
Even after these sales, there’s been a healthy increase in active inventory across the metro area:
- King County: up 14% year-over-year
- Pierce County: up 18%
- Snohomish County: up 12%
That’s an overall metro-wide increase of 15%, which is substantially less than October’s 26% annual increase in active listings.
All in all, this was another encouraging report, showing a much more active housing market than at this time last year across Washington, including the Seattle metro area. It’s solid evidence that buyers haven’t rushed back into hibernation—even with mortgage rates rebounding a bit last month.
