Real Estate News • September 18, 2023

Are More Homes Coming onto the Market?

by Drew Jones

September 18, 2023

An important factor shaping today’s market is the number of homes for sale. And, if you’re considering whether or not to list your house, that’s one of the biggest advantages you have right now. When housing inventory is this low, your house will stand out, especially if it’s priced right.

But there are some early signs that more listings are coming. According to the latest data, new listings (homeowners who just put their house up for sale) are trending up. Here’s a look at why this is noteworthy and what it may mean for you.

More Homes Are Coming onto the Market than Usual

It’s well known that the busiest time in the housing market each year is the spring buying season. That’s why there’s a predictable increase in the volume of newly listed homes throughout the first half of the year. Sellers are anticipating this and ramping up for the months when buyers are most active. But, as the school year kicks off and as the holidays approach, the market cools. It’s what’s expected.

But here’s what’s surprising. Based on the latest data from Realtor.com, there’s an increase in the number of sellers listing their houses later this year than usual. A peak this late in the year isn’t typical. You can see both the normal seasonal trend and the unusual August in the graph below:As Realtor.com explains:

“While inventory continues to be in short supply, August witnessed an unusual uptick in newly listed homes compared to July, hopefully signaling a return in seller activity heading toward the fall season . . .”

While this is only one month of data, it’s unusual enough to note. It’s still too early to say for sure if this trend will continue, but it’s something you’ll want to stay ahead of if it does.

What This Means for You

If you’ve been putting off selling your house, now may be the sweet spot to make your move. That’s because, if this trend continues, you’ll have more competition the longer you wait. And if your neighbor puts their house up for sale too, it means you may have to share buyers’ attention with that other homeowner. If you sell now, you can beat your neighbors to the punch.

But, even with more homes coming onto the market, the market is still well below normal supply levels. And, that inventory deficit isn’t going to be reversed overnight. The graph below helps put this into context, so you can see the opportunity you still have now:

Bottom Line

Even though inventory is still low, you don’t want to wait for more competition to pop up in your neighborhood. You still have an incredible opportunity if you sell your house today. Let’s connect to explore the benefits of selling now before more homes come to the market.

Real Estate News • September 14, 2023

Why Is Housing Inventory So Low?

by Drew Jones

September 14, 2023

One question that’s top of mind if you’re thinking about making a move today is: Why is it so hard to find a house to buy? And while it may be tempting to wait it out until you have more options, that’s probably not the best strategy. Here’s why.

There aren’t enough homes available for sale, but that shortage isn’t just a today problem. It’s been a challenge for years. Let’s take a look at some of the long-term and short-term factors that have contributed to this limited supply.

Underbuilding Is a Long-Standing Problem

One of the big reasons inventory is low is because builders haven’t been building enough homes in recent years. The graph below shows new construction for single-family homes over the past five decades, including the long-term average for housing units completed:

For 14 straight years, builders didn’t construct enough homes to meet the historical average (shown in red). That underbuilding created a significant inventory deficit. And while new home construction is back on track and meeting the historical average right now, the long-term inventory problem isn’t going to be solved overnight.

Today’s Mortgage Rates Create a Lock-In Effect

There are also a few factors at play in today’s market adding to the inventory challenge. The first is the mortgage rate lock-in effect. Basically, some homeowners are reluctant to sell because of where mortgage rates are right now. They don’t want to move and take on a rate that’s higher than the one they have on their current home. The chart below helps illustrate just how many homeowners may find themselves in this situation:

Those homeowners need to remember their needs may matter just as much as the financial aspects of their move.

Misinformation in the Media Is Creating Unnecessary Fear

Another thing that’s limiting inventory right now is the fear that’s been created by the media. You’ve likely seen the negative headlines calling for a housing crash, or the ones saying home prices would fall by 20%. While neither of those things happened, the stories may have dinged your confidence enough for you to think it’s better to hold off and wait for things to calm down. As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer at Parcl, says:

“In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.”

That’s further limiting inventory because people who would make a move otherwise now feel hesitant to do so. But the market isn’t doom and gloom, even if the headlines are. An agent can help you separate fact from fiction.

How This Impacts You

If you’re wondering how today’s low inventory affects you, it depends on if you’re selling or buying a home, or both.

For buyers: A limited number of homes for sale means you’ll want to seriously consider all of your options, including various areas and housing types. A skilled professional will help you explore all of what’s available and find the home that best fits your needs. They can even coach you through casting a broader net if you need to expand your search.
For sellers: Today’s low inventory actually offers incredible benefits because your house will stand out. A real estate agent can walk you through why it’s especially worthwhile to sell with these conditions. And since many sellers are also buyers, that agent is also an essential resource to help you stay up to date on the latest homes available for sale in your area so you can find your next dream home.

Bottom Line

The low supply of homes for sale isn’t a new challenge. There are a number of long-term and short-term factors leading to the current inventory deficit. If you’re looking to make a move, let’s connect. That way you’ll have an expert on your side to explain how this impacts you and what’s happening with housing inventory in our area.

Homeowner Tips • September 13, 2023

Protect Your Home: Fall Home Maintenance Checklist

by Drew Jones

September 2024

Home maintenance in the rainy Pacific Northwest is crucial to protect your property from the wet and sometimes harsh conditions. Here’s a fall checklist of home maintenance projects that can help prevent expensive damage to your home this winter:

✅ Clean Gutters and Downspouts

Remove leaves, debris, and moss from gutters and downspouts. Ensure they are clear to allow proper drainage and prevent water damage to your home’s foundation.

✅ Inspect and Clean Roof

Examine the roof for loose or damaged shingles. Clean moss and debris off the roof’s surface and check for any signs of leaks or water damage.

✅ Check Seals and Caulking

Inspect window and door seals, as well as exterior caulking. Replace any damaged or deteriorating seals to prevent drafts and leaks.

✅ Trim Trees and Shrubs

Trim overhanging branches and foliage away from your house to prevent damage during heavy winds and storms.

✅ Weatherstrip Doors and Windows

Seal gaps around doors and windows with weatherstripping to improve energy efficiency and keep moisture out.

✅ Inspect the Foundation

Check for cracks or gaps in your home’s foundation and seal them to prevent water infiltration.

✅ Clean and Seal Decks/Patios

Pressure wash and reseal wooden decks and patios to protect them from the constant rain and prevent rot.

✅ Service Heating System

Have your heating system professionally serviced to ensure it’s in good working order for the colder months.

✅ Clean Chimney and Fireplace

If you have a fireplace or wood stove, have the chimney cleaned and inspected for safety. Clean out the fireplace or stove and stock up on firewood.

✅ Check Sump Pump

Test your sump pump to make sure it’s working correctly to prevent basement flooding.

✅ Inspect Drains and Drainage Systems

Check storm drains, French drains, and any other drainage systems on your property to ensure they are clear and functioning correctly.

✅ Moss Control

Apply moss control treatment to your roof, pathways, and driveway to prevent moss buildup, which can become slippery and cause damage.

✅ Check and Clean Outdoor Lighting

Replace bulbs in outdoor lighting fixtures and ensure walkways and entry areas are well-lit for safety during dark, rainy evenings.

✅ Inspect and Clean Outdoor Furniture

Clean and store outdoor furniture or cover it to protect it from the rain and winter weather.

✅ Test Smoke and CO Detectors

Test and replace the batteries in smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors to ensure they are in working order.

✅ Prepare an Emergency Kit

Assemble an emergency kit with essentials like flashlights, batteries, candles, blankets, and non-perishable food items in case of power outages or severe storms.

✅ Seal Cracks and Gaps

Inspect the interior for gaps or cracks around windows, doors, and in the basement. Seal them to improve energy efficiency and prevent drafts.

✅ Clean Dryer Vents

Remove lint buildup from dryer vents to reduce the risk of fire and ensure your dryer functions efficiently.

✅ Inspect Exterior Paint

Check the exterior paint for peeling or cracks. Touch up or repaint areas as needed to protect against moisture damage.

✅ Plan a Fall Garden

If you have a garden, plan and plant fall-appropriate crops and flowers to enjoy throughout the season.

Regular maintenance is essential to protect your home from the rainy climate of the Pacific Northwest. Prioritize these tasks to ensure your home remains safe, comfortable, and in good condition throughout the fall and winter months.

drew@windermere.com

Homeowner Tips • September 12, 2023

5 Home Staging Tips for Creating a Cozy, Autumn Oasis

by Drew Jones

Fall is a fantastic time to showcase your home because it offers unique opportunities to create warmth, coziness, and charm. If you are planning to sell this fall, I would highly recommend using a professional stager. Staging is very often a key ingredient to a successful selling strategy.

However, it’s still fun to use some expert tips and ideas to boost your home’s cozy vibes and fall feels. Here are five expert staging tips for making your home extra homey this fall:

🛋️ Enhance Lighting

As daylight hours dwindle, make sure to maximize your home’s natural light. Clean windows and replace outdated curtains with sheer or light-colored options. Consider adding strategically placed mirrors to reflect light and brighten spaces.

If your home is lacking in natural light, look for places where an added light or lamp might brighten the room. White, light, and neutral paints are a key part of staging your home and they can help lift the brightness of your home.

Finally, don’t forget the outside! Make sure your exterior lights are on and paths are lighted if needed. Exterior lights are a great way to enhance curb appeal, welcome guests, and provide extra safety for walking. You can literally make your home glow with autumnal charm!

🍂 Cozy up with Textiles

Nothing says “welcome home” like soft, cozy textiles. Plush throw blankets, seasonal accent pillows, and area rugs in warm, autumnal colors can create a sense of comfort in your living spaces.

Tasteful, fall touches can help accentuate a home’s ambience. A well-placed autumn wreath on the front door, a decorative bowl of apples or gourds on the dining table, and a few pumpkins on the porch are nice seasonal accents.

🔥 Fireside Comforts

If your home has a fireplace, arrange cozy seating around it. And, of course, lighting it or turning it on is the perfect way to create instant warmth.

🍁 Curb Appeal Matters:

Along with exterior lights, it’s also important to keep the outside of your home fresh and clean to emphasize your yard’s natural autumn beauty. Rake leaves, clean out gutters, and add some seasonal potted plants, like mums, to boost curb appeal.

PNW residents love their outdoor spaces, even in the fall. Ensure that decks and patios are clean and inviting. Stage them with cozy seating, blankets, and perhaps some café lights and/or a fire pit to showcase the potential for year-round enjoyment.

🕯️ It Makes Scents

Finally, appeal to the senses with the comforting scents of autumn. Consider using subtle, pleasant, scented candles, essential oil diffusers, or potpourri with fall scents like apple cinnamon, pumpkin spice, or warm vanilla.

With these fall staging tips, you can already envision yourself snuggled up with a book by the fire or sipping hot cider on the patio. 🏡🍂

If you’re thinking of selling this fall and need advice or assistance, please reach out to me. I’m here to help you make your property stand out in the Seattle area real estate market during this cozy season!

drew@windermere.com

Real Estate News • September 12, 2023

What Experts Project for Home Prices Over the Next 5 Years

by Drew Jones

If you’re planning to buy a home, one thing to consider is what experts project home prices will do in the future and how that might affect your investment. While you may have seen negative news over the past year about home prices, they’re doing far better than expected and are rising across the country. And data shows, experts forecast home prices will keep appreciating.

Experts Project Ongoing Appreciation

Pulsenomics polled over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts in the latest quarterly Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES). The results show what the panelists project will happen with home prices over the next five years. Here are those expert forecasts saying home prices will go up every year through 2027 (see graph below):If you’re someone who was worried home prices would fall because of stories you’ve read online, here’s the big takeaway. Even though home prices vary by local market, experts project prices will continue to rise across the country for years to come. And these numbers indicate the return to more normal home price appreciation.

And while the projected increase in 2024 isn’t as large as 2023, it’s important to recognize home price appreciation is cumulative. In other words, if these experts are correct, after your home’s value rises by 3.32% this year, it’ll appreciate by another 2.17% next year. This is a good example of why owning a home is a choice that wins big over time.

What Does This Mean for You?

Once you buy a home, price appreciation raises your home’s value, and that grows your household wealth. To see how a typical home’s value could change in the next few years using the expert projections from the HPES, check out the graph below:In this example, let’s say you bought a $400,000 home at the beginning of this year. If you factor in the forecast from the HPES, you could potentially accumulate more than $71,000 in household wealth over the next five years.

So, if you’re thinking about whether buying a home is a good choice, remember how it can be a powerful way to grow your wealth in the long run.

Bottom Line

According to the experts, home prices are expected to grow over the next five years at a more normal pace. If you’re ready to become a homeowner, know that buying today can set you up for long-term success as home values (and your own net worth) grow. Let’s connect to start the home-buying process today.

Homeowner Tips • September 11, 2023

6 Simple Ways to Protect Your Home from Rain Damage

by Drew Jones

I love rainy days. The sound of rain on the roof and windows usually provides me with a peaceful, relaxed feeling. I remember one time, though, when the sound of raindrops sounded more like alarm bells going off than a soft, cozy pitter-patter.

Years ago, when my wife and I were new homeowners (and before I was a realtor), I was at the office on a rainy day in January. My phone rang and I picked it up to hear my wife’s stressed voice telling me I needed to come home asap. The basement carpet was soaking wet.

I rushed home. My wife and I lifted the carpet, put sandbags down, and did everything we could to stop our things and our home from complete catastrophe.

That week felt like a crash course in homeownership. We replaced the carpet, installed a sump pump, and gained a wealth of knowledge about safeguarding our home from the devastating effects of water damage.

As homeowners in the Pacific Northwest, it’s essential to protect your valuable home from water damage. Over many years of working in real estate, I’ve seen water damage affect all parts of people’s homes, ranging from minor to catastrophic. I don’t want that to happen to you.

If I’m your realtor, you can be sure I’ll help you spot potential issues – raindrops on your roof should lull you to sleep, not send you into a middle-of-the-night scramble to stop a disaster.

Here are 6 key things you can do to prevent water damage:

Keep your gutters and downspouts clear.

Make sure they’re free of debris so water flows freely and away from your home. You’ll prevent water from accumulating on your roof and causing leaks and damage.

Inspect your roof regularly

You can look for missing or damaging shingles, cracking, and other signs of wear and tear. If you notice anything, have it repaired as soon as possible so water won’t find its way into your house.

Seal your windows and doors.

I’ve learned this one the hard way too. Take the time to seal around windows and doors, so you can prevent water from leaking in and damaging your interior walls and rooms.

Check your grading and drainage.

Where is the water running once it hits the ground? If your yard doesn’t slope away from your home, you can create ways for the water to drain away from the house so it doesn’t pool, causing flooding and/or foundation damage.

Check your sump pump.

If you have a sump pump, make sure it’s in working order and not blocked by debris.

Create a disaster plan.

It’s always a good idea to be prepped for emergencies. Having sandbags and tarps on hand can help in the case of flooding. Make sure you and your family know what to do in case of flooding and severe weather, and know how to shut off your utilities in case of an emergency.

That’s it for this rainy-day post, written on a rainy day in Seattle. Please call or email me anytime for real estate advice or questions.

Email me at drew@windermere.com or call me at 206-619-2739.

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Real Estate News • September 11, 2023

Home Price Forecasts Revised for 2023

by Drew Jones

Some Highlights

Last year, some housing experts projected a decline in home prices by the end of 2023. But that didn’t happen – inventory was just too low.
While it’s normal for experts to re-forecast throughout the year, the good news for 2023 is that prices are no longer projected to decrease.
Let’s connect so you know what’s happening with home values in our local area.

Sources

Mortgage Rates • September 11, 2023

Mortgage Rates: Past, Present, and Possible Future

by Drew Jones

If you’re hoping to buy a home this year, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates. Since mortgage rates impact what you can afford when you take out a home loan – and affordability is a challenge today – it’s a good time to look at the big picture of where mortgage rates have been historically compared to where they are now. Beyond that, it’s important to understand their relationship with inflation for insights into where mortgage rates might go in the near future.

Giving Context to the Sticker Shock

Freddie Mac has been tracking the 30-year fixed mortgage rate since April of 1971. Every week, they release the results of their Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which averages mortgage application data from lenders across the country (see graph below):

Looking at the right side of the graph, mortgage rates have increased significantly since the start of last year. But even with that rise, today’s rates are still below the 52-year average. While that historical perspective is good context, buyers have gotten used to mortgage rates between 3% and 5%, which is where they’ve been over the past 15 years.

That’s important because it explains why the recent jump in rates might have you feeling sticker shock even though they’re close to their long-term average. While many buyers have adjusted to the elevated rates over the past year, a slightly lower rate would be a welcome sight. To determine if that’s a realistic possibility, it’s important to look at inflation.

Where Could Mortgage Rates Go in the Future?

The Federal Reserve has been working hard to lower inflation since early 2022. That’s significant because, historically, there’s been a connection between inflation and mortgage rates (see graph below):

This graph shows a pretty reliable relationship between inflation and mortgage rates. Looking at the left side of the graph, each time inflation moves significantly (shown in blue), mortgage rates follow suit shortly after (shown in green).

The circled portion of the graph points out the most recent spike in inflation, with mortgage rates following closely behind. As inflation has moderated a bit this year, mortgage rates haven’t yet made a similar move.

That means, if history is any guide, the market is waiting for mortgage rates to follow inflation and head back down. It’s impossible to accurately predict where mortgage rates will go for sure, but moderating inflation means mortgage rates going down in the near future would fit a well-established trend.

Bottom Line

To understand where mortgage rates may be going, it’s helpful to look at where they’ve been in the past. There’s a clear connection between inflation and mortgage rates, and if that historical relationship holds true, the recent decline in inflation may mean good news for the future of mortgage rates and your homeownership goals.

Market Update • Real Estate News • September 11, 2023

Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023

by Drew Jones

Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying home prices were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong.

While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the ‘unicorn’ years, nationally, home prices didn’t come crashing down. If anything, prices were a lot more resilient than many people expected.

Let’s take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent forecasts to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic.

Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now

This visual shows the 2023 home price forecasts from seven organizations. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late 2022) for what would happen to home prices by the end of this year and their most recently revised 2023 forecasts (see chart below):

As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, you’ll see all experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That’s a significant change from the original negative numbers.

There are a number of reasons why home prices are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:

“One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge – your primary household expense doesn’t change when inflation rises – and is a reason why home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.”

A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines

For home prices, you’re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. That’s because there’s seasonality to home price appreciation and they’re going to misunderstand that. Here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines.

As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn’t mean prices are falling – it’s just that they’re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season.

Basically, deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating.

Bottom Line

The headlines have an impact, even if they’re not true. While the media said home prices would fall significantly in their coverage at the end of last year, that didn’t happen. Let’s connect so you have a trusted resource to help you separate fact from fiction with reliable data.

Market Update • September 11, 2023

Why It’s Still a Seller’s Market Today

by Drew Jones

Even though activity in the housing market has slowed from the frenzy that was the ‘unicorn’ years, it’s still a seller’s market because the supply of homes for sale is so low. But what does that really mean for you? And why are conditions today so good if you want to sell your house?

The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows housing supply is still astonishingly low. Housing inventory is measured by the number of available homes on the market. It’s also measured by months’ supply, meaning the number of months it would take to sell all those available homes based on current demand. In a balanced market, there’s usually about a six-month supply. Today, we have only about 3 months’ supply of homes at the current sales pace (see graph below):

As the visual shows, given the current inventory of homes, it’s still a seller’s market.

Today, we’re nowhere near what’s considered a balanced market. In fact, the current months’ supply is half of what’s typical of a normal market. That means there just aren’t enough homes to go around based on today’s buyer demand.

As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR, says:

“There are simply not enough homes for sale. The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.”

How Does Being in a Seller’s Market Benefit You?

Sellers, these conditions give you a real edge. Right now, there are buyers who are ready, willing, and able to purchase a home. And, because there’s a shortage of homes up for sale, the ones that do hit the market are like magnets for those buyers.

If you work with a local real estate agent to list your house right now, in good condition, and at the right price, it could get a lot of attention. You might even end up with multiple offers.

Bottom Line

Today’s seller’s market sets you up with a big advantage when you sell your house. Because supply is so low, your house will be in the spotlight for motivated buyers who are craving more options. Let’s connect so you understand what’s happening in our local area as you get ready to enter the market.