Market Forecast • May 15, 2025

What an Economic Slowdown Could Mean for the Housing Market

by Drew Jones

Talk about the economy is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. That’s leaving a lot of people wondering what it means for the value of their home – and their buying power.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in the housing market during each recession, going all the way back to the 1980s. The facts may surprise you.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because inventory is still so low overall. Even in markets where the number of homes for sale has started to rise this year, inventory is still far below the oversupply of homes that led up to the housing crash.

In fact, according to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

So, don’t assume a recession will lead to a significant drop in home values. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, both nationally and locally, home prices are still rising, just at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

So, a recession means rates could decline. And while that would help with your buying power, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. However, that doesn’t mean you have to worry about what it means for the housing market – or the value of your home. Historical data tells us what usually happens.

Real Estate News • May 15, 2025

Stocks May Be Volatile, but Home Values Aren’t

by Drew Jones

With all the uncertainty in the economy, the stock market has been bouncing around more than usual. And if you’ve been watching your 401(k) or investments lately, chances are you’ve felt that pit in your stomach. One day it’s up. The next day, it’s not. And that may make you feel a little worried about your finances.

But here’s the thing you need to remember if you’re a homeowner. According to Investopedia:

“Traditionally, stocks have been far more volatile than real estate. That’s not to say that real estate prices aren’t ever volatile—the years around the 2007 to 2008 financial crisis are just one memorable example—but stocks are more prone to large value swings.”

While your stocks or 401(k) might see a lot of highs and lows, home values are much less volatile.

A Drop in the Stock Market Doesn’t Mean a Crash in Home Prices

Take a look at the graph below. It shows what happened to home prices (the blue bars) during past stock market swings (the orange bars):

Even when the stock market falls more substantially, home prices don’t always come down with it.

Big home price drops like 2008 are the exception, not the rule. But everyone remembers that one. That stock market crash was caused by loose lending practices, subprime mortgages, and an oversupply of homes – a scenario that doesn’t exist today. That’s what made it so different.

In many cases before and after that time, home values actually went up while the stock market went down, showing that real estate is generally much more stable.

This graph shows how stock prices go up and down (the orange line), sometimes by more than 30% in a year. In contrast, home prices (the blue line) change more slowly (see graph below):

Basically, stock values jump around a lot more than home prices do. You can be way up one day and way down the next. Real estate, on the other hand, isn’t usually something that experiences such dramatic swings.

That’s why real estate can feel more stable and less risky than the stock market.

So, if you’re worried after the recent ups and downs in your stock portfolio, rest assured, your home isn’t likely to experience the same volatility.

And that’s why homeownership is generally viewed as a preferred long-term investment. Even if things feel uncertain right now, homeowners win in the long run.

A lot of people are feeling nervous about their finances right now. But there’s one reason for you to feel more secure – your investment in something that’s stood the test of time: real estate.

Selling Your House • May 15, 2025

Why Some Homes Sell Faster Than Others

by Drew Jones

As you think ahead to your own move, you may have noticed some houses sell within days, while others linger. But why is that? As Redfin says:

“. . . today’s housing market has been topsy-turvy since the pandemic. Low inventory (though rising) and high prices have created a strange mix: Some homes are flying off the market, while others sit for weeks.”

That may leave you wondering what you should expect when you sell. Let’s break it down and give you some actionable tips on how to make sure your house is one that sells quickly.

Homes Are Still Selling Faster Than Pre-Pandemic

The first thing you should know is that, in most markets, things have slowed down a little bit. While you may remember how quickly homes sold a few years ago, that’s not what you should expect today.

Now that inventory has grown, according to Realtor.com, homes are taking a bit longer to sell in today’s market (see graph below):

But before you get hung up on the ten-day difference compared to the past few years, Realtor.com will help put this into perspective:

“In April, the typical home spent 50 days on the market . . . This marks the 13th straight month of homes taking longer to sell on a year-over-year basis. Still, homes are moving more quickly than they did before the pandemic . . .”

By this comparison, if your house does take a little more time to sell this year, it’s not really a concern. It’s actually still faster than the norm. Plus, it gives you a bit more time to find your next home, which is welcome relief when you’re trying to move, too.

Just remember, some homes sell in less time than this. Some take even longer. So, what’s the real difference? Why do some homes attract eager buyers almost instantly, while others sit and struggle?

It comes down to having the right agent and strategy. Here are a few tips you need to know.

1. Price It Right

One of the biggest reasons homes sit on the market is overpricing. Many sellers want to shoot for a higher price, thinking they can lower it later – but that backfires by turning buyers away.

What to do: Work with an agent to make sure your house is priced right. They’ll analyze recent comparable sales (what other homes have sold for recently in your area), so you know you’re pricing appropriately for today’s market and what buyers are willing to pay. As Chen Zhao, Economic Research Lead at Redfin, explains:

“My advice to sellers is to price your home fairly for the shifting market; you may need to price lower than your initial instinct to sell quickly and avoid giving concessions.”

2. Focus on the First Impression

A messy yard or a house that needs paint? It’ll turn buyers off. Since buyers decide within seconds whether they like a home, a good first impression is key.

What to do: Outside, clean up your front yard, tidy up your landscaping, power wash walkways, and add fresh mulch. Inside, declutter and depersonalize. And consider minor touch-ups like repainting in a neutral tone. Your agent will offer advice on what to tackle.

3. Strong Marketing & High-Quality Listing Photos

If your listing or your photos don’t look professional, you could have trouble drawing in buyers who think you’re trying to cut corners.

What to do: Instead, lean on your agent’s skills, expertise, and resources. They’ll help you make sure you have:

High-resolution listing photos showing the home in its best light.
Detailed descriptions that highlight differentiating features of your house.
Your listing on multiple platforms, including major real estate sites and social media.

4. The Location of the Home

You may have heard the phrase “location, location, location” when it comes to real estate. And there’s definitely some truth to that. Homes in highly sought-after neighborhoods tend to sell faster.

What to do: While you can’t change where your house is located, your agent can highlight the best features of your neighborhood or community in your listing. By showcasing what’s great about your area, they can help draw buyers into what life would look like in your house.

Are you thinking about selling? Let’s talk about how to get your home sold quickly and for top dollar.

Market Forecast • May 15, 2025

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year

by Drew Jones

From rising home prices to mortgage rate swings, the housing market has left a lot of people wondering what’s next and whether now is really the right time to move. Let’s check in with the experts and find out what’s on tap for the second half of 2025.

Leading housing experts are starting to release their projections for the rest of the year. These insights will give you clarity and maybe even a little more optimism than you might expect. Business Insider sums up the forecasts (and why they’re good news for you):

“As mortgage rates go down this year, affordability may improve slightly for homebuyers. Inventory is also expected to grow, which should help moderate price growth and make finding a home easier.”

Let’s break it down.

1. Mortgage Rates Should Come Down (Slightly)

While a major drop isn’t on the table, forecasters are calling for a modest decline in rates in the months ahead as the economic outlook becomes more certain. Based on the information we have right now, here’s a look at where they say rates should be by year-end (see graph below):

Even this slight decrease is a welcome change. A seemingly small decline can still help bring down your future mortgage payment and give you a bit more breathing room in your budget.

Just remember, everything from inflation to employment and broader economic shifts will have an impact on where rates go from here. So, don’t try to time the market. And do expect some volatility along the way.

2. Inventory Will Continue To Grow

Inventory has already improved a lot this year. A big portion of the growth the market has already seen is because homeowners are getting tired of sitting on the sidelines. They’ve tried the wait and see approach with rates, and it hasn’t really paid off. And at a certain point, you need to move no matter what the market is doing. This is one reason more homes have been listed lately. And experts say that should continue. As Lance Lambert, Co-founder of ResiClub, says:

“The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year . . . strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher.”

If rate forecasts pan out as the experts say, that could be enough to tip some more sellers off the fence and back into the market – giving you even more options for your move.

3. Home Prices Are Moderating

As more homes hit the market, there will also be less upward pressure on home prices. Expert forecasts are still calling for growth, but the pace of that growth is slowing down as inventory climbs. The average of all 7 forecasts shows prices will rise about 2% this year (see graph below):

That means you could finally get a little bit of relief from rapidly rising home prices. When you combine the forecast for healthier price growth with projections for slightly lower mortgage rates, that could mean more buying power in the months ahead.

The housing market is going to vary by area, though, so contact me anytime and we can discuss what’s happening locally and where you’re looking to buy or sell.

Home Inspections • May 15, 2025

Why You’ll Want A Home Inspection: Infographic

by Drew Jones

Once your offer is accepted, an inspector will assess the condition of the house, including things like the roof, foundation, plumbing, and more.

That information is incredibly important and paves the way for you to re-negotiate with the seller, as needed. So, you don’t want to skip this step. An inspection is your chance to avoid costly headaches and get peace of mind.

Buying a Home • May 15, 2025

Why Buyers Are More Likely To Get Concessions Right Now

by Drew Jones

Both homebuilders and sellers are sweetening the deal for buyers with things like paid closing costs, mortgage rate buy-downs, and more, especially in areas where inventory is rising. In the industry, it’s called a concession or an incentive.

What Are Concessions and Incentives?

When a seller or builder gives you something extra to help with your purchase, that’s called either a concession or an incentive.

A concession is something a seller gives up or agrees to in order to reach a compromise and close a deal.
An incentive, on the other hand, is a benefit a builder or seller advertises and offers up front to attract and encourage buyers.

Today, some of the most common ones are:

Help with closing costs
Mortgage rate buy-downs (to temporarily lower your rate)
Discounts or price reductions
Upgrades or appliances
Home warranties
Minor repairs

For buyers, getting any of these things thrown in can be a big deal, especially if you’re working with a tight budget. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says:

“. . . they can help reduce the upfront costs associated with purchasing a home.”

Builders Are Making It Easier To Buy

It’s not just one builder willing to toss in a few extras. A lot of builders are using this tactic lately. As Zonda says:

“Incentives continued to be popular in March, offered by builders on 56% of to-be-built homes and 74% of quick move-in (QMI) homes, which can likely be occupied within 90 days.”

That’s because they don’t want to sit on inventory for too long. They want it to sell. And according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), one of the strategies many builders are using to keep that inventory moving (and not just sitting) is a price adjustment (see graph below):

Around 30% of builders lowered prices in each of the first four months of the year. While that also means most builders aren’t lowering prices, it also shows some are willing to negotiate with buyers to get a deal done.

This isn’t a sign of trouble in the market, it’s an opportunity for you. The fact that the majority of builders offer incentives and roughly 3 in 10 are lowering prices means if you’re looking at a newly built home, your builder will probably try to make it easier for you to close the deal.

Existing Home Sellers Are Offering More, Too

More existing homes (one that someone has lived in before) have been hitting the market, too – which means sellers are facing more competition. That’s why over 44% of sellers of existing homes gave concessions to buyers in March (see graph below):

And, if you look back at pre-pandemic years on this graph, you’ll see 44% is pretty much returning to normal. After years of sellers having all the power, the market is balancing again, which can work in your favor as a buyer.

But remember, concessions don’t always mean a big discount. While more sellers are compromising on price, that’s not always the lever they pull. Sometimes it’s as simple as the seller paying for repairs, leaving appliances behind for you, or helping with your closing costs.

And considering that home values have risen by more than 57% over the course of the past 5 years, small concessions are a great way for sellers to make a house more attractive to buyers while still making a profit.

Whether you’re looking at a newly built home or something a little older, there’s a good chance you can benefit from concessions or incentives.

Market Update • May 15, 2025

Paused Your Moving Plans? Here’s Why It’s Time To Hit Play Again

by Drew Jones

It’s not really a surprise that 70% of buyers paused their home search last year.

Inventory was too low, prices were too high, and mortgage rates were bouncing all over. That made it really hard to find a home you loved and could afford. And why sell if you’re not sure where you’re going to go?

But here’s the thing: the market’s shifting. And it might be time to hit play again.

The Inventory Sweet Spot

More homeowners are jumping back into their search to make a move this year. Builders are finishing more homes. And together, that’s creating more options for you when you move – maybe even the home you’ve been waiting for.

More homes = more possibilities.

But there’s more to it than that. When you sell, you don’t want to feel like it’s impossible to find your next home. At the same time, you also don’t want inventory to be so high, it takes ages for your house to sell. Right now, you’ll get the best of both worlds.

This data will help paint the picture for you. In Seattle, inventory has jumped 47% since this time last year, but it’s still below pre-pandemic levels in most markets. Here’s a national look at why this time could be a sweet spot for buying and selling real estate:

Basically, there are more homes to choose from when you make your move, but not so many that you’ll struggle to sell your current house. Your home should sell quickly if you work with an agent to make sure it’s priced right and prepped to impress.

More options. Less chaos. Solid demand: That’s the real sweet spot.

But here’s something else to consider. Data from Realtor.com also shows inventory has been on the rise for 17 straight months. And experts agree it’s likely to continue climbing throughout the year. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub explains:

“The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year . . . strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher.”

So, this may actually be the best time to sell. Your house may stand out more now than it would as the year goes on and inventory grows even more. Wait too long, and you may be one of many trying to stand out later this year.

If you’ve been waiting for the housing market to give you a sign, it just did. Whether you’re looking to move up, scale down, or relocate completely, this might be the best balance we’ve seen in a while.

Let’s talk through it and see what’s possible.

Real Estate News • April 14, 2025

Here’s What a Recession Could Mean for the Housing Market

by Drew Jones

Recession talk is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. And that leaves people wondering what would happen to the housing market if we do go into a recession.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in housing for each recession going all the way back to the 1980s.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time we saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since.

In fact, according to data from CoreLogic, in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

So, if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, don’t assume a recession will lead to a crash in home prices. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

So, a recession means mortgage rates could decline based on the data. While that would help with affordability, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. But that doesn’t mean you have to wonder about the impact on the housing market – historical data tells us what usually happens.

When you hear talk about a possible recession, what concerns or questions come to mind about buying or selling a home?

Buying a Home • April 14, 2025

Townhomes: A Smart Solution for Today’s First-Time Buyers

by Drew Jones

Buying your first home in today’s market can feel tough. Between high home prices and mortgage rates, affordability is still a big challenge. And some buyers are making one simple trade-off that’s getting them in the door faster: square footage.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 35% of buyers are willing to purchase something smaller to make homeownership happen. And one place you can usually find a smaller footprint (and sometimes better affordability) is in townhomes.

Why Townhomes Are Gaining Popularity

Townhomes typically cost less than single-family homes due to their more limited size. And that’s a big plus for today’s budget-conscious buyer. As Realtor.com says:

“In today’s market, affordability remains a key priority for homebuyers, making townhomes an attractive option because they are often priced more reasonably than single-family homes. It makes them especially appealing to first-time homebuyers on a tighter budget . . .”

So, if you’re trying to buy but feeling stuck because of rising prices, shifting your focus to townhomes could be one way to get into homeownership without maxing out your budget.

Builders Are Responding to the Demand

Builders have seen buyers’ appetite shift to smaller homes, and they’re adjusting to meet the demand. As Joel Berner, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“Builders are making a concerted effort to provide smaller, more affordable inventory to the market in a way that the existing-home market cannot. Townhomes are a significant portion of that effort.”

And the numbers back it up. According to data from Realtor.com, townhomes now make up a bigger share of new construction listings than they did just a couple of years ago (see graph below):

That means, if you’re interested in this type of house, you have more choices than you would have had over the last few years. And more options that are potentially more affordable are definitely a good thing. It should make your search for your first home a bit easier.

Is a Townhome Right for You?

If you’ve been focused only on more traditional homes with their own yards, an agent can help you explore whether a townhome could work for you. Who knows, you may find out you love the lifestyle. A lot of people do. As an article from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“Townhomes tend to cost less than single-family detached homes and can be appealing to young professionals who may desire medium-density, walkable neighborhoods.”

That’s because they’re lower maintenance, they can provide a sense of community with other residents, and they have their own unique amenities. Not to mention, they give you the chance to start building wealth through homeownership without the upkeep that comes with having your own detached, single-family home. And that can be great for first-time buyers who are a bit worried about the maintenance anyway.

But they also come with some other considerations, like dealing with noise through shared walls. If you’re a renter right now, maybe you’re used to that already. But these are the types of things you’ll want to think about. And that’s where an agent’s expertise comes in. They’ll help you weigh the pros and cons, so you understand how a townhome fits into your lifestyle and long-term goals before making your decision.

If you’re struggling to find a home within your budget, it may be time to expand your search and consider options you haven’t before, like townhomes. Sometimes, compromising a little bit on space is worth it to get your foot in the door.

What matters most to you — space, location, or budget? Let’s figure out where you can flex to make homeownership happen.

Real Estate News • April 14, 2025

A Recession Doesn’t Mean A Housing Crisis

by Drew Jones