Buying a Home June 20, 2025

Why More Sellers Are Choosing To Move, Even with Today’s Rates

It’s hard to let go of a 3% mortgage rate. There’s no question about it. It’s the main reason why so many homeowners have delayed their move in recent years. But here’s something to consider.

While your low rate might be ideal, it doesn’t make up being too cramped, having a staircase your knees can’t handle anymore, or being 1,000 miles from your family. And those real-life needs are pushing more sellers off the fence despite today’s rates.

Data shows the share of homeowners with a mortgage rate below 3% is dropping as more people move. And, as a result, the share of homeowners taking on a mortgage rate above 6% is rising, too (see graph below):

The Biggest Reasons People Are Moving Right Now

Why are some homeowners willing to take on a higher rate? A survey from Realtor.com helps shed light on that. It shows 79% of homeowners considering selling today are doing it out of necessity. And that same survey says most of the necessary reasons people are moving are non-financial in nature (see graph below):

a graph with blue textDo any of these reasons resonate for you, too?

  • You Need More Space: Whether it’s a new baby, children needing their own rooms, or having your parents move in so it’s easier to take care of them, outgrowing your space can happen fast.
  • You Need Less Space: The kids are out of the house now and you’re craving a life that’s a little simpler. Downsizing can be a major relief: fewer rooms to clean, less to maintain, and lower utility bills, too.
  • You Want to Be Closer to Family: Whether it’s to help with grandchildren or care for aging parents, sometimes the pull of being near loved ones outweighs the math.
  • A Relationship in Your Life Has Changed: Divorce, separation, or moving in together after a marriage or new partnership – all can create the need for a fresh start and a new place to call home.
  • Your Job Is Taking You Somewhere New: If you finally landed your dream job or your partner’s company is relocating, you may need to move too.

What About Mortgage Rates?

Yes, experts expect mortgage rates to ease, but slowly. The latest projections show only modest declines this year – not the 3% you may be hoping for (see graph below):

a graph of blue barsSo, while waiting for a big drop in rates might sound strategic, it could just mean more time feeling stuck in a space that no longer fits. And for many, that waiting game has already gone on long enough.

According to Realtor.com, nearly 2 in 3 potential sellers have been thinking about moving for over a year. So, if you’re in a position where your current house doesn’t fit your needs anymore, that’s pretty normal. Maybe it’s time to start looking?

Buying a Home June 20, 2025

3 Reasons To Buy a Home This Summer

Are you thinking about buying a home, but not sure if now’s the right time? A lot of people are waiting and wondering what the market’s going to do next. But here’s something only the savviest buyers realize:

This summer might actually be the best time to buy in years. Here are three big reasons why.

1. You Have More Negotiating Power

After several years of sellers having all the leverage, things are starting to shift. Check out the graph below. It uses data from Redfin to show that right now, there are more sellers active in the market than buyers:

a graph of sales and salesTake a look at what happened back in 2021 through roughly 2023. In that time period, there were far more buyers (the blue line) looking to buy than homes for sale (the green line). That’s what drove the intense competition, bidding wars, and the exponential price growth the market saw back then.

Now, the market has shifted, and buyers are regaining their negotiating power as a result. With more sellers than buyers, sellers may be more willing to pay for repairs, cover some of your closing costs, or lower their asking price. The return of this kind of normal balance is a sign of a much healthier, more sustainable market. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“ . . . with housing inventory levels reaching five-year highs, homebuyers in nearly every region of the country are in a better position to negotiate more favorable terms.”

And just in case you’re worried there are too many homes on the market, here’s what you should know. Overall inventory is still lower than normal, so you don’t have to worry about a nationwide oversupply or a crash.

2. You Have More Choices

The number of homes for sale has improved a lot. Based on the latest data from Realtor.com, more homes were listed this May than in May 2024 or May 2023 (see graph below):

And more homes for sale means more choices. There’s a good chance your perfect match just hit the market – or it will soon. So, it’s a great time to explore what’s out there. As Jake Krimmel, Economist at Realtor.com, says:

“With more fresh inventory hitting the market, buyers have better opportunities to find a home that fits their needs.”

3. You May See More Flexibility on Price

With more homes for sale, they’re not selling at the same frenzied pace they were just a few years ago.

Since homes are taking more time to sell, some sellers are choosing to lower their asking prices to draw buyers back in or speed up the process. And that’s to-be-expected. According to Realtor.com, 19.1% of listings had a price cut this May (see graph below):

a graph of blue rectangular bars with numbers and textThat’s the fifth straight month where more sellers have reduced their price. And, as of May, the volume of price cuts is back at normal levels. This is yet another sign of the return to a more balanced market.

While you shouldn’t expect a big discount, you may find sellers are a bit more flexible right now. As a recent article from The Street says:

Although sellers have had the upper hand in the housing market over the past few years, houses are now staying on the market for longer, shifting negotiating power back to homebuyers.”

Just remember, most sellers still aren’t adjusting their prices – just the ones who overpriced to start with. So, this isn’t a sign of a crash, it’s a sign of some sellers having outdated expectations in a shifting market.

So, this summer brings a powerful combo for buyers: more homes to choose from, less competition, and sellers being more flexible on pricing. If you’re ready to make a move, let’s connect.

What would finding the right home this summer mean for your next chapter?

Seasonal Home Maintenance June 20, 2025

10 Simple Decluttering Tips for Summer

Local Market Update June 16, 2025

Local Look: Western Washington Housing Update 6/4/2025

Here’s a transcript from Jeff Tucker’s latest Local Look video update:

Hi, this is Jeff Tucker, Principal Economist at Windermere Real Estate, and this is a local look at the May 2025 data from the Northwest MLS.

Last month we saw a sudden pullback in pending sales, and those chickens came home to roost with fewer closed sales in May. Many of these impacted closed sales originated from contracts signed—or not signed—in April, following Trump’s “Liberation Day,” when the stock market had dropped sharply and a lot of buyers paused their home searches.

Now, we’ve seen the stock market fully recover by May. And while it’s still a little too early to tell, there are indications that the housing market is also getting back on track.

So what we’re looking at here are the four key metrics I watch to track supply and demand in the market: closed and pending sales, which tell us a lot about demand, and listings—new and active—which tell us a lot about supply.

📉 Sales and Demand

Across the Northwest MLS, closed sales of single-family homes fell 3% in May from their year-ago levels, after growing 1% in April.

Pending sales, though—which are more of a real-time demand indicator—were flat from last year. That’s a promising rebound after falling 4% year-over-year in April.

📈 Listings and Inventory

On the supply side, about 13% more new listings hit the market this May, and the tally of active listings ended the month 39% higher than May 2024’s inventory. That means buyers are still seeing a lot more options than they had last spring.

There is one little glimmer of an inflection point here, which is that the year-over-year growth in inventory has finally stopped getting higher and higher month after month. So that year-over-year change was actually a little bit smaller than last month. It might be the beginning of a turning point in the trend.

🏷 Median Prices

Finally, the median price for all those closed residential sales actually ticked down slightly in the month of May from last year. It fell 1% to $677,500.

So it seems like that extra inventory and cautious buyers have brought price appreciation to a halt for now.

Putting that all together: closed sales and home prices did step down slightly from last year at this time, which we were expecting after the weak demand signals we saw in April’s data. But the pending sales data suggests that buyers started coming back in May.

🏡 A Closer Look at the Greater Seattle Area

Now we’ll dig into some details for the four counties encompassing the greater Seattle area.

Starting with residential closed sales:

  • Closed sales dipped 7% year-over-year in the four-county region, led by a sharp 14% drop in King County, which includes Seattle and Bellevue.
  • Closed sales dipped 2% in Kitsap County, climbed 2% in Pierce County (including Tacoma), and climbed 1% in Snohomish County, which includes Everett.

So those three counties—other than King—actually held up surprisingly well, given that all four counties had seen sizable pending sales declines back in April. Maybe outside of the core region, some of those buyers came back and closed quickly in May.

💰 Local Prices

Looking at median closed price:

  • King County saw the only median sales price decline—about 1%, bringing it just below the $1 million mark.
  • Median prices climbed modestly in Kitsap and Pierce Counties.
  • Prices barely climbed in Snohomish County.

🔮 Looking Ahead: Pending Sales

Looking ahead:

  • Pending sales dropped only 0.8% in the four-county area.
    • About 1% down in King County
    • Down 4% in Kitsap
    • Down 0.7% in Pierce
    • Up 0.8% in Snohomish

All in all, they’re basically flat from a year ago across most of the region, which is a strong indication that local market activity has rebounded a bit after that shock in April around the new tariff announcements.

🗃 Inventory Growth Continues

On the supply side, inventory is continuing to grow.

  • The four-county greater Seattle area had over 8,100 active listings at the end of May—up 45% from the same time last year.

Just like in April, inventory growth is especially dramatic right now in:

  • King County, where listings are up 58%
  • Snohomish County, where listings are up 54%
  • Kitsap County saw more modest growth—up only 8% year-over-year

📌 Final Thoughts

All in all, this report confirmed that greater Seattle region buyers did step back in April, but it gave some promising indications that buyers returned at nearly year-ago levels in May.

 

Local Market UpdateUncategorized June 16, 2025

The Numbers to Know Right Now: A Market Update from Jeff Tucker

Here’s a transcript from Jeff Tucker’s latest video:

Hi, I’m Jeff Tucker, Principal Economist at Windermere Real Estate, and these are the numbers to know right now.

This week, I’m jumping back in to check on the elephant in the room this spring: tariffs.

Tariffs Are Down—but Still Historically High

The first number to know is 17.8%. That’s the new average effective tariff rate on U.S. imports.

  • It’s down sharply from 27% last month, but still the highest level since 1934.
  • It’s also about five times the level we had at the start of the year.
  • This data comes from estimates by the Yale Budget Lab, as of the week of May 12th.

While this is still a very high level of tariffs, it’s clearly moving in the right direction, toward lower tariffs. That said, even this smaller hike is still expected to reduce real GDP in the U.S.

  • According to the Yale Budget Lab’s model, there will be a long-run decline of 36 percentage points in GDP.
  • This follows a deeper short-term shock, though both impacts have shrunk significantly, about half as large as projections from just a month ago, when the tariffs were harsher.

Market Reaction: Tariff Walk-backs on the Horizon?

Just as important as the actual reduction in tariffs is what it signals:
Investors seem to believe more rollbacks are coming.

  • The stock market has fully regained all its losses from earlier in the year.
  • In fact, it’s now up slightly year-to-date, and up 20% from its early April low.

To me, that suggests investors have concluded we won’t see a major hit to U.S. corporate profits or economic growth after all.

Consumer Prices & Inflation: No Major Shock

The tariffs that have gone into effect haven’t yet caused a spike in consumer prices.

  • April inflation data came in right around expectations.
  • We did not see a spike in goods prices.
  • Year-over-year inflation ticked down again, now landing at 3%.

This is more good news—it also gives the Federal Reserve a bit more breathing room to prepare for possible interest rate cuts later this year.

Housing Market: Inventory Hits a Milestone

Turning to the national housing market, we’ve reached a significant milestone:

  • There were more active listings at the end of April 2024 than in the same month of 2020.
  • You can see those two lines crossing on the chart—that’s a first since inventory began plunging during the early pandemic in spring 2020.
  • In fact, many areas now have more inventory than in 2019.

In total, active listings were up 31% year-over-year at the end of April.

That means a lot more homes on the market for buyers to choose from, compared to recent years. It also means more competition for current sellers than we’ve seen at any time since the pandemic began.

Sales: A Small But Surprising Uptick

One surprising development: pending sales actually ticked up 2.2% year-over-year in April.

That’s notable given the drop in consumer sentiment I discussed last month. But it’s important to recognize this national trend masks significant regional differences.

For example, Realtor.com data showed:

  • A 7% decline in pending sales in the Seattle metro area this April compared to last year.

So, the national average hides a lot of variation between local markets.

Mortgage Rates: Still Stuck

Finally, the ongoing issue we’ve all been watching: mortgage rates.

  • They remain stuck between 75% and 7%.
  • The bond market hasn’t recovered the way the stock market has.
  • Factors like fading fears of recession and rising expectations for a larger deficit (based on current congressional budget drafts) are keeping bond yields—and mortgage rates—high for now.

Wrapping Up

That’s all for this week. Thanks, as always, for tuning in.

Seasonal Home Maintenance May 19, 2025

Spring Home Maintenance Checklist

Market Forecast May 15, 2025

What an Economic Slowdown Could Mean for the Housing Market

Talk about the economy is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. That’s leaving a lot of people wondering what it means for the value of their home – and their buying power.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in the housing market during each recession, going all the way back to the 1980s. The facts may surprise you.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because inventory is still so low overall. Even in markets where the number of homes for sale has started to rise this year, inventory is still far below the oversupply of homes that led up to the housing crash.

In fact, according to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the price of falling pricesSo, don’t assume a recession will lead to a significant drop in home values. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, both nationally and locally, home prices are still rising, just at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the rise of mortgage ratesSo, a recession means rates could decline. And while that would help with your buying power, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. However, that doesn’t mean you have to worry about what it means for the housing market – or the value of your home. Historical data tells us what usually happens.

Real Estate News May 15, 2025

Stocks May Be Volatile, but Home Values Aren’t

With all the uncertainty in the economy, the stock market has been bouncing around more than usual. And if you’ve been watching your 401(k) or investments lately, chances are you’ve felt that pit in your stomach. One day it’s up. The next day, it’s not. And that may make you feel a little worried about your finances.

But here’s the thing you need to remember if you’re a homeowner. According to Investopedia:

Traditionally, stocks have been far more volatile than real estate. That’s not to say that real estate prices aren’t ever volatile—the years around the 2007 to 2008 financial crisis are just one memorable example—but stocks are more prone to large value swings.”

While your stocks or 401(k) might see a lot of highs and lows, home values are much less volatile.

A Drop in the Stock Market Doesn’t Mean a Crash in Home Prices

Take a look at the graph below. It shows what happened to home prices (the blue bars) during past stock market swings (the orange bars):

Even when the stock market falls more substantially, home prices don’t always come down with it.

Big home price drops like 2008 are the exception, not the rule. But everyone remembers that one. That stock market crash was caused by loose lending practices, subprime mortgages, and an oversupply of homes – a scenario that doesn’t exist today. That’s what made it so different.

In many cases before and after that time, home values actually went up while the stock market went down, showing that real estate is generally much more stable.

This graph shows how stock prices go up and down (the orange line), sometimes by more than 30% in a year. In contrast, home prices (the blue line) change more slowly (see graph below):

a graph of a price chartBasically, stock values jump around a lot more than home prices do. You can be way up one day and way down the next. Real estate, on the other hand, isn’t usually something that experiences such dramatic swings.

That’s why real estate can feel more stable and less risky than the stock market.

So, if you’re worried after the recent ups and downs in your stock portfolio, rest assured, your home isn’t likely to experience the same volatility.

And that’s why homeownership is generally viewed as a preferred long-term investment. Even if things feel uncertain right now, homeowners win in the long run.

A lot of people are feeling nervous about their finances right now. But there’s one reason for you to feel more secure – your investment in something that’s stood the test of time: real estate.

Selling Your House May 15, 2025

Why Some Homes Sell Faster Than Others

As you think ahead to your own move, you may have noticed some houses sell within days, while others linger. But why is that? As Redfin says:

“. . . today’s housing market has been topsy-turvy since the pandemic. Low inventory (though rising) and high prices have created a strange mix: Some homes are flying off the market, while others sit for weeks.”

That may leave you wondering what you should expect when you sell. Let’s break it down and give you some actionable tips on how to make sure your house is one that sells quickly.

Homes Are Still Selling Faster Than Pre-Pandemic

The first thing you should know is that, in most markets, things have slowed down a little bit. While you may remember how quickly homes sold a few years ago, that’s not what you should expect today.

Now that inventory has grown, according to Realtor.com, homes are taking a bit longer to sell in today’s market (see graph below):

a graph of a bar chart

But before you get hung up on the ten-day difference compared to the past few years, Realtor.com will help put this into perspective:

“In April, the typical home spent 50 days on the market . . . This marks the 13th straight month of homes taking longer to sell on a year-over-year basis. Still, homes are moving more quickly than they did before the pandemic . . .

By this comparison, if your house does take a little more time to sell this year, it’s not really a concern. It’s actually still faster than the norm. Plus, it gives you a bit more time to find your next home, which is welcome relief when you’re trying to move, too.

Just remember, some homes sell in less time than this. Some take even longer. So, what’s the real difference? Why do some homes attract eager buyers almost instantly, while others sit and struggle?

It comes down to having the right agent and strategy. Here are a few tips you need to know.

1. Price It Right

One of the biggest reasons homes sit on the market is overpricing. Many sellers want to shoot for a higher price, thinking they can lower it later – but that backfires by turning buyers away.

What to do: Work with an agent to make sure your house is priced right. They’ll analyze recent comparable sales (what other homes have sold for recently in your area), so you know you’re pricing appropriately for today’s market and what buyers are willing to pay. As Chen Zhao, Economic Research Lead at Redfin, explains:

“My advice to sellers is to price your home fairly for the shifting market; you may need to price lower than your initial instinct to sell quickly and avoid giving concessions.”

2. Focus on the First Impression

A messy yard or a house that needs paint? It’ll turn buyers off. Since buyers decide within seconds whether they like a home, a good first impression is key.

What to do: Outside, clean up your front yard, tidy up your landscaping, power wash walkways, and add fresh mulch. Inside, declutter and depersonalize. And consider minor touch-ups like repainting in a neutral tone. Your agent will offer advice on what to tackle.

3. Strong Marketing & High-Quality Listing Photos

If your listing or your photos don’t look professional, you could have trouble drawing in buyers who think you’re trying to cut corners.

What to do: Instead, lean on your agent’s skills, expertise, and resources. They’ll help you make sure you have:

  • High-resolution listing photos showing the home in its best light.
  • Detailed descriptions that highlight differentiating features of your house.
  • Your listing on multiple platforms, including major real estate sites and social media.

4. The Location of the Home

You may have heard the phrase “location, location, location” when it comes to real estate. And there’s definitely some truth to that. Homes in highly sought-after neighborhoods tend to sell faster.

What to do: While you can’t change where your house is located, your agent can highlight the best features of your neighborhood or community in your listing. By showcasing what’s great about your area, they can help draw buyers into what life would look like in your house.

Are you thinking about selling? Let’s talk about how to get your home sold quickly and for top dollar.

Market Forecast May 15, 2025

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year

From rising home prices to mortgage rate swings, the housing market has left a lot of people wondering what’s next and whether now is really the right time to move. Let’s check in with the experts and find out what’s on tap for the second half of 2025.

Leading housing experts are starting to release their projections for the rest of the year. These insights will give you clarity and maybe even a little more optimism than you might expect. Business Insider sums up the forecasts (and why they’re good news for you):

“As mortgage rates go down this year, affordability may improve slightly for homebuyers. Inventory is also expected to grow, which should help moderate price growth and make finding a home easier.”

Let’s break it down.

1. Mortgage Rates Should Come Down (Slightly)

While a major drop isn’t on the table, forecasters are calling for a modest decline in rates in the months ahead as the economic outlook becomes more certain. Based on the information we have right now, here’s a look at where they say rates should be by year-end (see graph below):

a graph of interest rateEven this slight decrease is a welcome change. A seemingly small decline can still help bring down your future mortgage payment and give you a bit more breathing room in your budget.

Just remember, everything from inflation to employment and broader economic shifts will have an impact on where rates go from here. So, don’t try to time the market. And do expect some volatility along the way.

2. Inventory Will Continue To Grow

Inventory has already improved a lot this year. A big portion of the growth the market has already seen is because homeowners are getting tired of sitting on the sidelines. They’ve tried the wait and see approach with rates, and it hasn’t really paid off. And at a certain point, you need to move no matter what the market is doing. This is one reason more homes have been listed lately. And experts say that should continue. As Lance Lambert, Co-founder of ResiClub, says:

“The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year . . . strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher.

If rate forecasts pan out as the experts say, that could be enough to tip some more sellers off the fence and back into the market – giving you even more options for your move.

3. Home Prices Are Moderating

As more homes hit the market, there will also be less upward pressure on home prices. Expert forecasts are still calling for growth, but the pace of that growth is slowing down as inventory climbs. The average of all 7 forecasts shows prices will rise about 2% this year (see graph below):

a graph of growth in green squaresThat means you could finally get a little bit of relief from rapidly rising home prices. When you combine the forecast for healthier price growth with projections for slightly lower mortgage rates, that could mean more buying power in the months ahead.

The housing market is going to vary by area, though, so contact me anytime and we can discuss what’s happening locally and where you’re looking to buy or sell.