Local Market Update • June 16, 2025

2025

by Drew Jones

Here’s a transcript from Jeff Tucker’s latest Local Look video update:

Hi, this is Jeff Tucker, Principal Economist at Windermere Real Estate, and this is a local look at the May 2025 data from the Northwest MLS.

Last month we saw a sudden pullback in pending sales, and those chickens came home to roost with fewer closed sales in May. Many of these impacted closed sales originated from contracts signed—or not signed—in April, following Trump’s “Liberation Day,” when the stock market had dropped sharply and a lot of buyers paused their home searches.

Now, we’ve seen the stock market fully recover by May. And while it’s still a little too early to tell, there are indications that the housing market is also getting back on track.

So what we’re looking at here are the four key metrics I watch to track supply and demand in the market: closed and pending sales, which tell us a lot about demand, and listings—new and active—which tell us a lot about supply.

📉 Sales and Demand

Across the Northwest MLS, closed sales of single-family homes fell 3% in May from their year-ago levels, after growing 1% in April.

Pending sales, though—which are more of a real-time demand indicator—were flat from last year. That’s a promising rebound after falling 4% year-over-year in April.

📈 Listings and Inventory

On the supply side, about 13% more new listings hit the market this May, and the tally of active listings ended the month 39% higher than May 2024’s inventory. That means buyers are still seeing a lot more options than they had last spring.

There is one little glimmer of an inflection point here, which is that the year-over-year growth in inventory has finally stopped getting higher and higher month after month. So that year-over-year change was actually a little bit smaller than last month. It might be the beginning of a turning point in the trend.

🏷 Median Prices

Finally, the median price for all those closed residential sales actually ticked down slightly in the month of May from last year. It fell 1% to $677,500.

So it seems like that extra inventory and cautious buyers have brought price appreciation to a halt for now.

Putting that all together: closed sales and home prices did step down slightly from last year at this time, which we were expecting after the weak demand signals we saw in April’s data. But the pending sales data suggests that buyers started coming back in May.

🏡 A Closer Look at the Greater Seattle Area

Now we’ll dig into some details for the four counties encompassing the greater Seattle area.

Starting with residential closed sales:

Closed sales dipped 7% year-over-year in the four-county region, led by a sharp 14% drop in King County, which includes Seattle and Bellevue.
Closed sales dipped 2% in Kitsap County, climbed 2% in Pierce County (including Tacoma), and climbed 1% in Snohomish County, which includes Everett.

So those three counties—other than King—actually held up surprisingly well, given that all four counties had seen sizable pending sales declines back in April. Maybe outside of the core region, some of those buyers came back and closed quickly in May.

💰 Local Prices

Looking at median closed price:

King County saw the only median sales price decline—about 1%, bringing it just below the $1 million mark.
Median prices climbed modestly in Kitsap and Pierce Counties.
Prices barely climbed in Snohomish County.

🔮 Looking Ahead: Pending Sales

Looking ahead:

Pending sales dropped only 0.8% in the four-county area.
- About 1% down in King County
- Down 4% in Kitsap
- Down 0.7% in Pierce
- Up 0.8% in Snohomish

All in all, they’re basically flat from a year ago across most of the region, which is a strong indication that local market activity has rebounded a bit after that shock in April around the new tariff announcements.

🗃 Inventory Growth Continues

On the supply side, inventory is continuing to grow.

The four-county greater Seattle area had over 8,100 active listings at the end of May—up 45% from the same time last year.

Just like in April, inventory growth is especially dramatic right now in:

King County, where listings are up 58%
Snohomish County, where listings are up 54%
Kitsap County saw more modest growth—up only 8% year-over-year

📌 Final Thoughts

All in all, this report confirmed that greater Seattle region buyers did step back in April, but it gave some promising indications that buyers returned at nearly year-ago levels in May.

Local Market Update • Uncategorized • June 16, 2025

The Numbers to Know Right Now: A Market Update from Jeff Tucker

by Drew Jones

Here’s a transcript from Jeff Tucker’s latest video:

Hi, I’m Jeff Tucker, Principal Economist at Windermere Real Estate, and these are the numbers to know right now.

This week, I’m jumping back in to check on the elephant in the room this spring: tariffs.

Tariffs Are Down—but Still Historically High

The first number to know is 17.8%. That’s the new average effective tariff rate on U.S. imports.

It’s down sharply from 27% last month, but still the highest level since 1934.
It’s also about five times the level we had at the start of the year.
This data comes from estimates by the Yale Budget Lab, as of the week of May 12th.

While this is still a very high level of tariffs, it’s clearly moving in the right direction, toward lower tariffs. That said, even this smaller hike is still expected to reduce real GDP in the U.S.

According to the Yale Budget Lab’s model, there will be a long-run decline of 36 percentage points in GDP.
This follows a deeper short-term shock, though both impacts have shrunk significantly, about half as large as projections from just a month ago, when the tariffs were harsher.

Market Reaction: Tariff Walk-backs on the Horizon?

Just as important as the actual reduction in tariffs is what it signals:
Investors seem to believe more rollbacks are coming.

The stock market has fully regained all its losses from earlier in the year.
In fact, it’s now up slightly year-to-date, and up 20% from its early April low.

To me, that suggests investors have concluded we won’t see a major hit to U.S. corporate profits or economic growth after all.

Consumer Prices & Inflation: No Major Shock

The tariffs that have gone into effect haven’t yet caused a spike in consumer prices.

April inflation data came in right around expectations.
We did not see a spike in goods prices.
Year-over-year inflation ticked down again, now landing at 3%.

This is more good news—it also gives the Federal Reserve a bit more breathing room to prepare for possible interest rate cuts later this year.

Housing Market: Inventory Hits a Milestone

Turning to the national housing market, we’ve reached a significant milestone:

There were more active listings at the end of April 2024 than in the same month of 2020.
You can see those two lines crossing on the chart—that’s a first since inventory began plunging during the early pandemic in spring 2020.
In fact, many areas now have more inventory than in 2019.

In total, active listings were up 31% year-over-year at the end of April.

That means a lot more homes on the market for buyers to choose from, compared to recent years. It also means more competition for current sellers than we’ve seen at any time since the pandemic began.

Sales: A Small But Surprising Uptick

One surprising development: pending sales actually ticked up 2.2% year-over-year in April.

That’s notable given the drop in consumer sentiment I discussed last month. But it’s important to recognize this national trend masks significant regional differences.

For example, Realtor.com data showed:

A 7% decline in pending sales in the Seattle metro area this April compared to last year.

So, the national average hides a lot of variation between local markets.

Mortgage Rates: Still Stuck

Finally, the ongoing issue we’ve all been watching: mortgage rates.

They remain stuck between 75% and 7%.
The bond market hasn’t recovered the way the stock market has.
Factors like fading fears of recession and rising expectations for a larger deficit (based on current congressional budget drafts) are keeping bond yields—and mortgage rates—high for now.

Wrapping Up

That’s all for this week. Thanks, as always, for tuning in.

Seasonal Home Maintenance • May 19, 2025

Spring Home Maintenance Checklist

by Drew Jones

Market Forecast • May 15, 2025

What an Economic Slowdown Could Mean for the Housing Market

by Drew Jones

Talk about the economy is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. That’s leaving a lot of people wondering what it means for the value of their home – and their buying power.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in the housing market during each recession, going all the way back to the 1980s. The facts may surprise you.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because inventory is still so low overall. Even in markets where the number of homes for sale has started to rise this year, inventory is still far below the oversupply of homes that led up to the housing crash.

In fact, according to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

So, don’t assume a recession will lead to a significant drop in home values. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, both nationally and locally, home prices are still rising, just at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

So, a recession means rates could decline. And while that would help with your buying power, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. However, that doesn’t mean you have to worry about what it means for the housing market – or the value of your home. Historical data tells us what usually happens.

Real Estate News • May 15, 2025

Stocks May Be Volatile, but Home Values Aren’t

by Drew Jones

With all the uncertainty in the economy, the stock market has been bouncing around more than usual. And if you’ve been watching your 401(k) or investments lately, chances are you’ve felt that pit in your stomach. One day it’s up. The next day, it’s not. And that may make you feel a little worried about your finances.

But here’s the thing you need to remember if you’re a homeowner. According to Investopedia:

“Traditionally, stocks have been far more volatile than real estate. That’s not to say that real estate prices aren’t ever volatile—the years around the 2007 to 2008 financial crisis are just one memorable example—but stocks are more prone to large value swings.”

While your stocks or 401(k) might see a lot of highs and lows, home values are much less volatile.

A Drop in the Stock Market Doesn’t Mean a Crash in Home Prices

Take a look at the graph below. It shows what happened to home prices (the blue bars) during past stock market swings (the orange bars):

Even when the stock market falls more substantially, home prices don’t always come down with it.

Big home price drops like 2008 are the exception, not the rule. But everyone remembers that one. That stock market crash was caused by loose lending practices, subprime mortgages, and an oversupply of homes – a scenario that doesn’t exist today. That’s what made it so different.

In many cases before and after that time, home values actually went up while the stock market went down, showing that real estate is generally much more stable.

This graph shows how stock prices go up and down (the orange line), sometimes by more than 30% in a year. In contrast, home prices (the blue line) change more slowly (see graph below):

Basically, stock values jump around a lot more than home prices do. You can be way up one day and way down the next. Real estate, on the other hand, isn’t usually something that experiences such dramatic swings.

That’s why real estate can feel more stable and less risky than the stock market.

So, if you’re worried after the recent ups and downs in your stock portfolio, rest assured, your home isn’t likely to experience the same volatility.

And that’s why homeownership is generally viewed as a preferred long-term investment. Even if things feel uncertain right now, homeowners win in the long run.

A lot of people are feeling nervous about their finances right now. But there’s one reason for you to feel more secure – your investment in something that’s stood the test of time: real estate.

Selling Your House • May 15, 2025

Why Some Homes Sell Faster Than Others

by Drew Jones

As you think ahead to your own move, you may have noticed some houses sell within days, while others linger. But why is that? As Redfin says:

“. . . today’s housing market has been topsy-turvy since the pandemic. Low inventory (though rising) and high prices have created a strange mix: Some homes are flying off the market, while others sit for weeks.”

That may leave you wondering what you should expect when you sell. Let’s break it down and give you some actionable tips on how to make sure your house is one that sells quickly.

Homes Are Still Selling Faster Than Pre-Pandemic

The first thing you should know is that, in most markets, things have slowed down a little bit. While you may remember how quickly homes sold a few years ago, that’s not what you should expect today.

Now that inventory has grown, according to Realtor.com, homes are taking a bit longer to sell in today’s market (see graph below):

But before you get hung up on the ten-day difference compared to the past few years, Realtor.com will help put this into perspective:

“In April, the typical home spent 50 days on the market . . . This marks the 13th straight month of homes taking longer to sell on a year-over-year basis. Still, homes are moving more quickly than they did before the pandemic . . .”

By this comparison, if your house does take a little more time to sell this year, it’s not really a concern. It’s actually still faster than the norm. Plus, it gives you a bit more time to find your next home, which is welcome relief when you’re trying to move, too.

Just remember, some homes sell in less time than this. Some take even longer. So, what’s the real difference? Why do some homes attract eager buyers almost instantly, while others sit and struggle?

It comes down to having the right agent and strategy. Here are a few tips you need to know.

1. Price It Right

One of the biggest reasons homes sit on the market is overpricing. Many sellers want to shoot for a higher price, thinking they can lower it later – but that backfires by turning buyers away.

What to do: Work with an agent to make sure your house is priced right. They’ll analyze recent comparable sales (what other homes have sold for recently in your area), so you know you’re pricing appropriately for today’s market and what buyers are willing to pay. As Chen Zhao, Economic Research Lead at Redfin, explains:

“My advice to sellers is to price your home fairly for the shifting market; you may need to price lower than your initial instinct to sell quickly and avoid giving concessions.”

2. Focus on the First Impression

A messy yard or a house that needs paint? It’ll turn buyers off. Since buyers decide within seconds whether they like a home, a good first impression is key.

What to do: Outside, clean up your front yard, tidy up your landscaping, power wash walkways, and add fresh mulch. Inside, declutter and depersonalize. And consider minor touch-ups like repainting in a neutral tone. Your agent will offer advice on what to tackle.

3. Strong Marketing & High-Quality Listing Photos

If your listing or your photos don’t look professional, you could have trouble drawing in buyers who think you’re trying to cut corners.

What to do: Instead, lean on your agent’s skills, expertise, and resources. They’ll help you make sure you have:

High-resolution listing photos showing the home in its best light.
Detailed descriptions that highlight differentiating features of your house.
Your listing on multiple platforms, including major real estate sites and social media.

4. The Location of the Home

You may have heard the phrase “location, location, location” when it comes to real estate. And there’s definitely some truth to that. Homes in highly sought-after neighborhoods tend to sell faster.

What to do: While you can’t change where your house is located, your agent can highlight the best features of your neighborhood or community in your listing. By showcasing what’s great about your area, they can help draw buyers into what life would look like in your house.

Are you thinking about selling? Let’s talk about how to get your home sold quickly and for top dollar.

Market Forecast • May 15, 2025

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year

by Drew Jones

From rising home prices to mortgage rate swings, the housing market has left a lot of people wondering what’s next and whether now is really the right time to move. Let’s check in with the experts and find out what’s on tap for the second half of 2025.

Leading housing experts are starting to release their projections for the rest of the year. These insights will give you clarity and maybe even a little more optimism than you might expect. Business Insider sums up the forecasts (and why they’re good news for you):

“As mortgage rates go down this year, affordability may improve slightly for homebuyers. Inventory is also expected to grow, which should help moderate price growth and make finding a home easier.”

Let’s break it down.

1. Mortgage Rates Should Come Down (Slightly)

While a major drop isn’t on the table, forecasters are calling for a modest decline in rates in the months ahead as the economic outlook becomes more certain. Based on the information we have right now, here’s a look at where they say rates should be by year-end (see graph below):

Even this slight decrease is a welcome change. A seemingly small decline can still help bring down your future mortgage payment and give you a bit more breathing room in your budget.

Just remember, everything from inflation to employment and broader economic shifts will have an impact on where rates go from here. So, don’t try to time the market. And do expect some volatility along the way.

2. Inventory Will Continue To Grow

Inventory has already improved a lot this year. A big portion of the growth the market has already seen is because homeowners are getting tired of sitting on the sidelines. They’ve tried the wait and see approach with rates, and it hasn’t really paid off. And at a certain point, you need to move no matter what the market is doing. This is one reason more homes have been listed lately. And experts say that should continue. As Lance Lambert, Co-founder of ResiClub, says:

“The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year . . . strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher.”

If rate forecasts pan out as the experts say, that could be enough to tip some more sellers off the fence and back into the market – giving you even more options for your move.

3. Home Prices Are Moderating

As more homes hit the market, there will also be less upward pressure on home prices. Expert forecasts are still calling for growth, but the pace of that growth is slowing down as inventory climbs. The average of all 7 forecasts shows prices will rise about 2% this year (see graph below):

That means you could finally get a little bit of relief from rapidly rising home prices. When you combine the forecast for healthier price growth with projections for slightly lower mortgage rates, that could mean more buying power in the months ahead.

The housing market is going to vary by area, though, so contact me anytime and we can discuss what’s happening locally and where you’re looking to buy or sell.

Home Inspections • May 15, 2025

Why You’ll Want A Home Inspection: Infographic

by Drew Jones

Once your offer is accepted, an inspector will assess the condition of the house, including things like the roof, foundation, plumbing, and more.

That information is incredibly important and paves the way for you to re-negotiate with the seller, as needed. So, you don’t want to skip this step. An inspection is your chance to avoid costly headaches and get peace of mind.

Buying a Home • May 15, 2025

Why Buyers Are More Likely To Get Concessions Right Now

by Drew Jones

Both homebuilders and sellers are sweetening the deal for buyers with things like paid closing costs, mortgage rate buy-downs, and more, especially in areas where inventory is rising. In the industry, it’s called a concession or an incentive.

What Are Concessions and Incentives?

When a seller or builder gives you something extra to help with your purchase, that’s called either a concession or an incentive.

A concession is something a seller gives up or agrees to in order to reach a compromise and close a deal.
An incentive, on the other hand, is a benefit a builder or seller advertises and offers up front to attract and encourage buyers.

Today, some of the most common ones are:

Help with closing costs
Mortgage rate buy-downs (to temporarily lower your rate)
Discounts or price reductions
Upgrades or appliances
Home warranties
Minor repairs

For buyers, getting any of these things thrown in can be a big deal, especially if you’re working with a tight budget. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says:

“. . . they can help reduce the upfront costs associated with purchasing a home.”

Builders Are Making It Easier To Buy

It’s not just one builder willing to toss in a few extras. A lot of builders are using this tactic lately. As Zonda says:

“Incentives continued to be popular in March, offered by builders on 56% of to-be-built homes and 74% of quick move-in (QMI) homes, which can likely be occupied within 90 days.”

That’s because they don’t want to sit on inventory for too long. They want it to sell. And according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), one of the strategies many builders are using to keep that inventory moving (and not just sitting) is a price adjustment (see graph below):

Around 30% of builders lowered prices in each of the first four months of the year. While that also means most builders aren’t lowering prices, it also shows some are willing to negotiate with buyers to get a deal done.

This isn’t a sign of trouble in the market, it’s an opportunity for you. The fact that the majority of builders offer incentives and roughly 3 in 10 are lowering prices means if you’re looking at a newly built home, your builder will probably try to make it easier for you to close the deal.

Existing Home Sellers Are Offering More, Too

More existing homes (one that someone has lived in before) have been hitting the market, too – which means sellers are facing more competition. That’s why over 44% of sellers of existing homes gave concessions to buyers in March (see graph below):

And, if you look back at pre-pandemic years on this graph, you’ll see 44% is pretty much returning to normal. After years of sellers having all the power, the market is balancing again, which can work in your favor as a buyer.

But remember, concessions don’t always mean a big discount. While more sellers are compromising on price, that’s not always the lever they pull. Sometimes it’s as simple as the seller paying for repairs, leaving appliances behind for you, or helping with your closing costs.

And considering that home values have risen by more than 57% over the course of the past 5 years, small concessions are a great way for sellers to make a house more attractive to buyers while still making a profit.

Whether you’re looking at a newly built home or something a little older, there’s a good chance you can benefit from concessions or incentives.

Market Update • May 15, 2025

Paused Your Moving Plans? Here’s Why It’s Time To Hit Play Again

by Drew Jones

It’s not really a surprise that 70% of buyers paused their home search last year.

Inventory was too low, prices were too high, and mortgage rates were bouncing all over. That made it really hard to find a home you loved and could afford. And why sell if you’re not sure where you’re going to go?

But here’s the thing: the market’s shifting. And it might be time to hit play again.

The Inventory Sweet Spot

More homeowners are jumping back into their search to make a move this year. Builders are finishing more homes. And together, that’s creating more options for you when you move – maybe even the home you’ve been waiting for.

More homes = more possibilities.

But there’s more to it than that. When you sell, you don’t want to feel like it’s impossible to find your next home. At the same time, you also don’t want inventory to be so high, it takes ages for your house to sell. Right now, you’ll get the best of both worlds.

This data will help paint the picture for you. In Seattle, inventory has jumped 47% since this time last year, but it’s still below pre-pandemic levels in most markets. Here’s a national look at why this time could be a sweet spot for buying and selling real estate:

Basically, there are more homes to choose from when you make your move, but not so many that you’ll struggle to sell your current house. Your home should sell quickly if you work with an agent to make sure it’s priced right and prepped to impress.

More options. Less chaos. Solid demand: That’s the real sweet spot.

But here’s something else to consider. Data from Realtor.com also shows inventory has been on the rise for 17 straight months. And experts agree it’s likely to continue climbing throughout the year. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub explains:

“The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year . . . strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher.”

So, this may actually be the best time to sell. Your house may stand out more now than it would as the year goes on and inventory grows even more. Wait too long, and you may be one of many trying to stand out later this year.

If you’ve been waiting for the housing market to give you a sign, it just did. Whether you’re looking to move up, scale down, or relocate completely, this might be the best balance we’ve seen in a while.

Let’s talk through it and see what’s possible.